Investigating the Effects of Climate Change on the Phenology of Achillea millefolium, Aquilegia coerulea, and Penstemon cyanocaulis

As the effects of climate change are starting to unearth themselves, the impacts can be observed by tracking the patterns of cyclical natural phenomena also known as phenology, and monitoring how they have changed over time. These cycles are at the crux of making ecosystems viable for their local biodiversity, and understanding the ongoing change allows for further understanding of the ecosystem’s change over time. In this study, we look at the ordinal flowering dates of the Achillea millefolium, Aquilegia coerulea, and Penstemon cyanocaulis over the past century. Our data give insight into how warmer temperatures occurring earlier in the year are changing the cycle of flowering plants in the western United States. This framework encourages more investigation into the changes in plant phenology throughout different regions due to climate change

Infrared Observations of the Candidate LBV 1806-20 & Nearby Cluster Stars

We report near-infrared photometry, spectroscopy, and speckle imaging of the hot, luminous star we identify as candidate LBV 1806-20. We also present photometry and spectroscopy of 3 nearby stars, which are members of the same star cluster containing LBV 1806-20 and SGR 1806-20. The spectroscopy and photometry show that LBV 1806-20 is similar in many respects to the luminous ``Pistol Star'', albeit with some important differences. They also provide estimates of the effective temperature and reddening of LBV 1806-20, and confirm distance estimates, leading to a best estimate for the luminosity of this star of $> 5 \times 10^6 L_{\odot}$. The nearby cluster stars have spectral types and inferred absolute magnitudes which confirm the distance (and thus luminosity) estimate for LBV 1806-20. If we drop kinematic measurements of the distance ($15.1 ^{+1.8}_{-1.3}$ kpc), we have a lower limit on the distance of $>9.5$ kpc, and on the luminosity of $>2 \times 10^6 L_{\odot}$, based on the cluster stars. If we drop both the kinematic and cluster star indicators for distance, an ammonia absorption feature sets yet another lower limit to the distance of $>5.7$ kpc, with a corresponding luminosity estimate of $>7 \times 10^5 L_{\odot}$ for the candidate LBV 1806-20. Furthermore, based on very high angular-resolution speckle images, we determine that LBV 1806-20 is not a cluster of stars, but is rather a single star or binary system. Simple arguments based on the Eddington luminosity lead to an estimate of the total mass of LBV 1806-20 (single or binary) exceeding $190 M_{\odot}$. We discuss the possible uncertainties in these results, and their implications for the star formation history of this cluster.Comment: 36 pages, including 8 figures (Figures 1 and 7 in JPG format due to space); Accepted for publication in Ap

The Equity Impact Vaccines May Have On Averting Deaths And Medical Impoverishment In Developing Countries.

With social policies increasingly directed toward enhancing equity through health programs, it is important that methods for estimating the health and economic benefits of these programs by subpopulation be developed, to assess both equity concerns and the programs' total impact. We estimated the differential health impact (measured as the number of deaths averted) and household economic impact (measured as the number of cases of medical impoverishment averted) of ten antigens and their corresponding vaccines across income quintiles for forty-one low- and middle-income countries. Our analysis indicated that benefits across these vaccines would accrue predominantly in the lowest income quintiles. Policy makers should be informed about the large health and economic distributional impact that vaccines could have, and they should view vaccination policies as potentially important channels for improving health equity. Our results provide insight into the distribution of vaccine-preventable diseases and the health benefits associated with their prevention

The equity impact vaccines may have on averting deaths and medical impoverishment in developing countries

With social policies increasingly directed toward enhancing equity through health programs, it is important that methods for estimating the health and economic benefits of these programs by subpopulation be developed, to assess both equity concerns and the programs’ total impact. We estimated the differential health impact (measured as the number of deaths averted) and household economic impact (measured as the number of cases of medical impoverishment averted) of ten antigens and their corresponding vaccines across income quintiles for forty-one low- and middle-income countries. Our analysis indicated that benefits across these vaccines would accrue predominantly in the lowest income quintiles. Policy makers should be informed about the large health and economic distributional impact that vaccines could have, and they should view vaccination policies as potentially important channels for improving health equity. Our results provide insight into the distribution of vaccine-preventable diseases and the health benefits associated with their prevention

DU Undergraduate Showcase: Research, Scholarship, and Creative Works: Abstracts

Abstracts from the DU Undergraduate Showcase

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. METHODS: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. FINDINGS: We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. INTERPRETATION: Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Estimating the health impact of vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 low-income and middle-income countries from 2000 to 2030: a modelling study.

BACKGROUND: The past two decades have seen expansion of childhood vaccination programmes in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs). We quantify the health impact of these programmes by estimating the deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) averted by vaccination against ten pathogens in 98 LMICs between 2000 and 2030. METHODS: 16 independent research groups provided model-based disease burden estimates under a range of vaccination coverage scenarios for ten pathogens: hepatitis B virus, Haemophilus influenzae type B, human papillomavirus, Japanese encephalitis, measles, Neisseria meningitidis serogroup A, Streptococcus pneumoniae, rotavirus, rubella, and yellow fever. Using standardised demographic data and vaccine coverage, the impact of vaccination programmes was determined by comparing model estimates from a no-vaccination counterfactual scenario with those from a reported and projected vaccination scenario. We present deaths and DALYs averted between 2000 and 2030 by calendar year and by annual birth cohort. FINDINGS: We estimate that vaccination of the ten selected pathogens will have averted 69 million (95% credible interval 52-88) deaths between 2000 and 2030, of which 37 million (30-48) were averted between 2000 and 2019. From 2000 to 2019, this represents a 45% (36-58) reduction in deaths compared with the counterfactual scenario of no vaccination. Most of this impact is concentrated in a reduction in mortality among children younger than 5 years (57% reduction [52-66]), most notably from measles. Over the lifetime of birth cohorts born between 2000 and 2030, we predict that 120 million (93-150) deaths will be averted by vaccination, of which 58 million (39-76) are due to measles vaccination and 38 million (25-52) are due to hepatitis B vaccination. We estimate that increases in vaccine coverage and introductions of additional vaccines will result in a 72% (59-81) reduction in lifetime mortality in the 2019 birth cohort. INTERPRETATION: Increases in vaccine coverage and the introduction of new vaccines into LMICs have had a major impact in reducing mortality. These public health gains are predicted to increase in coming decades if progress in increasing coverage is sustained. FUNDING: Gavi, the Vaccine Alliance and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation